An in-depth preview of Friday's UEFA Super Cup.
1pt Atletico Madrid to beat Chelsea at 12/5 (Stan James).
1pt Falcao to score v Chelsea at 11/5 (Coral).
Recent history suggests that stakes are best kept to a minimum when betting on the UEFA Super Cup.
Sevilla beat odds-on favourites Barcelona 3-0 in 2006, a couple of years later Manchester United were defeated by Zenit St. Petersburg, while two years ago Atletico Madrid shocked Inter.
And it's the Spanish side who look value to win once more ahead of Friday night's tie with Chelsea.
Both sides have started the season in good form, Chelsea gaining nine points out of nine in the Premier League and Atletico thumping four past Athletic Bilbao outfit at the weekend.
Eden Hazard has slotted in perfectly as support to a confident Fernando Torres for the Blues, whose golden boot-winning performances at Euro 2012 have clearly acted as a springboard, and the Champions League winners are clearly in top form.
But while Torres will be determined to star against his boyhood club, his opposite number Radamel Falcao will attract just as much interest having again helped steer his side towards Europa League glory last season.
The Columbian bagged a hat-trick against Bilbao on Monday, and has now found the net in 15 of his last 23 appearances for Madrid, including against the likes of Real, Barcelona and Valencia.
Given that Chelsea are without captain John Terry, who is serving a European suspension, Coral's 11/5 about Falcao finding the net again looks a really good bit of business and he should be shorter than Torres, a 2/1 chance.
Whichever way you look at it, backing Falcao to score at evens would've paid off over the last season, regardless of whether his side are playing at home or away, domestically or in Europe, and there's no reason to believe he won't be at his best here.
We'll back him and Madrid, who are a vastly improved side from the one which lost 4-0 to Chelsea at Stamford Bridge three years ago.
There really does look nothing between these sides and although Chelsea have impressed so far this season, they were a tad flattered against Newcastle and this is by far their toughest test to date.
Atletico earned a point at Levante, a side who will play in the Europa League this season, and their demolition of Marcelo Bielsa's Bilbao was a lesson in the art of being ruthless.
Torres and Chelsea still have a little to do to convince us that they're worthy of their favourites tag here and are opposed to small stakes.
