Sport : F1

Hamilton to triumph in Hungary

26th July 2012, 01:33pm

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Tony Jardine: Believes Hamilton can win

Tony Jardine: Believes Hamilton can win

This last Grand Prix before the month-long Formula One summer break is vital for teams needing a lift before closure and those such as Ferrari looking to edge further away with another win to leave the opposition deflated during August.

The tight, twisty Hungaroring a blazing bowl of dust configured like a large kart track awaits the teams. They will need their best downforce configuration and plenty of traction with compliant suspension to attack the kerbs so they can conquer the tortuous track close to Budapest.

Just one week after their Hockenheim success, McLaren have put themselves back in the frame, but none of the top teams can afford to let Ferrari assert themselves going into the break, they must bite back. Not only do they need a car with no vices but drivers will need to be brave.

Overtaking is difficult, qualifying is crucial and strategy vital if you are to try and get past your rivals in the pit stops. This circuit demands the maximum downforce of the season, it also the slowest of the permanent tracks.

Red Bull and McLaren are both aiming to get back into the winners circle in order to enjoy their well-earned break. Ferrari may have broken away from the pack with Fernando Alonso's third win of the season giving him a 34 point lead over Mark Webber who struggled to eighth in Germany, but Red Bull lead the constructors' championship due to their previous winning form and consistency.

A question mark hangs over their performance this weekend if they have to change their engine mapping to conform to potential new regulation wording from the FIA following the investigation by stewards last Sunday in Hockenheim.

The team were cleared but the governing body said it would tighten up its own regulations to curb any possible traction control replication which is illegal.

The Renault engineers are very clever so not only will they have different engine maps to suit Hungary's confined corners but they will also be prepared with different software to cope with regulation changes. I still expect Red Bull Racing to be competitive as Webber was when he won for the team here in 2010.

Ferrari is the best all round car at the moment but it is not the fastest in a straight line. The tactical brilliance of Alonso kept the two faster cars of Jenson Button and Sebastian Vettel at bay suggesting the Spaniard is certainly at the peak of his driving in 2012.

He has been congratulated by the team for 'keeping the faith' when the car was nearly three seconds off the pace at the beginning of the season but he knows McLaren have turned their dry weather performance around and that Red Bull and Vettel will be shoulder to shoulder with them in the heat of Hungary and the prospect of interlopers Lotus who perform even better as the temperature rises will keep Alonso on his toes.

However, I believe Lewis Hamilton will be the man to watch on Sunday and I have him as my outright winner at 9/2 plus I think he could grab pole position. He was cruelly robbed in Germany after his early puncture over the debris but he continued to set fast times, unlap himself past Vettel and revel in the new handling brought on by the McLaren updates, all which were put on the car to good effect.

They will have more for Budapest. Both he and Button have won this race twice but Lewis loves to attack round here, he will have forgotten Germany determined to capitalise on the teams return to form.

Alonso should be on the podium with him at 4/6 but I have plumped for Kimi Raikkonen to qualify decently for a change and take step three of the podium after he inherited third from the demoted Vettel in Hockenheim but more importantly the Lotus ran strongly and quickly in the higher temperatures, it could have been higher still but for the poor grid position.

Button, Vettel and Webber complete my top six but again I am tempted to place a bet on a Sauber driver as my outside bet for a top six following the team's fantastic performance in Hockenheim with fourth for Kobayashi (best ever) and Sergio Perez sixth.

Sauber have improved their slow circuit performance but importantly both drivers styles are suited to this difficult track. Of course we predicted the Ferrari and Red Bulls to take podiums but my tip Hamilton was thwarted in Germany, hopefully not here.

However I did have Kobayashi as my outsider for a top six given his attacking style and the configuration of Hockenheim, he repaid in spades with a fourth overall, his best ever GP finish. I hope you got a good return if you took my tip.

Enjoy the Hungarian Grand Prix and don't get F1 withdrawal symptoms over the summer break.

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