Tony Jardine looks ahead to this weekend's Japanese Grand Prix and fancies Sebastian Vettel to do the business.
One of the most challenging Grand Prix tracks in the world can only be reached through the fairground of Honda Land deep in Japan.
The showpiece of the fair is the stunning Grand Prix track that is Suzuka, host to the 2012 Japanese Grand Prix and a pivotal event in this year's F1 World Championship battle.
If you were playing one of the many F1-related gambling machines in the arcades you would have to rate Sebastian Vettel's chances as very high and plump for the German to take outright victory.
The double world champion reignited his championship challenge with a victory in Singapore and sits just 29 points behind leader Fernando Alonso.
Here, Alonso's Ferrari could struggle against Vettel's Red Bull, which will soak up the series of high speed curves with its superior aerodynamics and svelte chassis. Straightline speed is not as important here, another factor in favour of the Red Bull which is why I have Mark Webber on the podium in third place with his team-mate.
Sebastian loves this drivers' track, which rewards skilled drivers - another reason why 16 of the last 18 races at Suzuka have been won by world champions.
A figure of eight configuration 65km south west of Nagoya, this track features a 'scalextric'-style crossover section plus awesome bends such as the 130R, which rank up there with Eau Rouge in Belgium, and the Degner Curves which claimed Lewis Hamilton in 2010.
Whilst I see Jenson Button back on the Japanese podium despite his five-place penalty for a gearbox change, I think Lewis Hamilton could falter.
He should get pole but with his switch of allegiance to Mercedes for 2013, I expect McLaren to turn their attentions to Jenson and restrict both information and treatment towards him.
Surely the last thing they would want would be for Lewis to take the coveted racing number one afforded to the world champion over to Mercedes for next season. I think Jenson could get as high as second; he won here last year despite Vettel forcing him onto the grass at the start.
Ferrari can never be discounted. They will arrive with various high-speed updates for their red challenger with Alonso whipping everyone into shape as usual. But for the Spaniard being taken out in the dramatic first-corner crash at Spa in the Belgian Grand Prix, Alonso has scored precious world championship points in every round so far. Although I don't see him on the podium, I do think he could grab fourth through his usual guile and stealth.
The weather can be a big factor in Japan. Whilst the recent storms have subsided somewhat, races were affected in 2004, 2005 and 2010, when the weather was so bad that qualifying had to be run on the Sunday morning.
The Japanese fans idolise the drivers - they will be very upset that Michael Schumacher has announced his retirement but as always they will scream for Button and pursue Vettel with a vengeance.
They will, however, reserve their hysteria for Japanese hero Kamui Kobayashi who not only loves Suzuka but has made some simply brilliant overtaking moves here spurred on by the adoring home crowd.
Although Kamui has yet to re-sign for the Sauber team he should fare well in the Ferrari-engined car, which will revel in the high-speed twists of the legendary track that witnessed the bitter battles and crashes of Prost and Senna in 1989 and 1990. I have him inside the top six with Kimi Raikkonen just behind him as the Lotus challenge seems to have run out of puff.
I think Pastor Maldonado is learning to stay out of trouble and could be inside the top 10 with Nico Hulkenberg's Force India, the German looking to be in the frame for the second Ferrari seat should Massa be relieved of his duties.
We had 60 per cent right for Singapore so let's hope my prospects prosper in Japan!
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