After his near-miss in the US Open, Jim Furyk can capture this week's AT&T National at Congressional according to Dave Tindall.
RECOMMENDED BETS
2pts e.w. Jim Furyk at 20/1 (Stan James 1/4 1,2,3,4,5).
1pt e.w. KJ Choi at 40/1 (General 1/4 1,2,3,4,5).
1pt e.w. Rory Sabbatini at 80/1 (General 1/4 1,2,3,4,5).
1pt e.w. Martin Laird at 66/1 (Ladbrokes 1/4 1,2,3,4,5).
It's a rather bizarre fact that Rory McIlroy's winning score of -16 in the US Open at Congressional was lower than the number required to take victory in the three AT&T Nationals it hosted from 2007-2009.
That's partly a reflection of the Ulsterman's brilliant play but also an indication that Congressional didn't really bare its teeth when it staged 2011's second major of the season.
Damp conditions took the fire out of the course last June, allowing McIlroy to break US Open records galore, but the forecast for this year's AT&T is for hot, dry conditions.
In other words, this is the chance for Congressional to fight back and show why the winning score in the 2007 AT&T was single digits under par (KJ Choi with -9). And it means I'll be looking for players who like a tough challenge.
The wet course in 2011 meant big hitters were to the fore but it'll be a much more level playing field this year and that's why I'm happy to give Jim Furyk another go.
Yes, it was disappointing that he couldn't get the job done in the US Open when carrying our money but when a 40/1 tip trades at odds on and gives you a solid each-way return he hardly deserves to become persona non grata.
There's probably a perception that Jimbo will be stewing over his Olympic Club near-miss and that's slightly reflected in the prices too.
However, the steely Pennsylvanian isn't a dweller and, on past evidence, there's absolutely no reason to desert him now.
Furyk has had several near misses in US Opens and finished runner-up in both 2006 and 2007.
So how did he respond to those close shaves?
Well, in 2006, after a three week break he came back out and finished fourth in the Western Open.
And after another second place in the 2007 US Open at Oakmont, Furyk's next outing saw him come fifth in the Buick Open two weeks later.
Within six starts of both those runner-up placings, Furyk was a winner on the US Tour again so, in short, when he just misses out on a US Open it's a sign that a victory is around the corner rather than a sign that he's worth swerving for a while.
This looks an ideal course for him to get back on the horse again and his finishes in the three previous AT&Ts at Congressional produced two third places and seventh.
As noted before this year's US Open, Furyk looks like a winner waiting to happen based on his displays over the last few months so let's jump on him each-way at 20s.
KJ Choi has been quiet for most of the season but the drums are starting to get louder.
His last three starts have produced a 13th back in his native Korea, a 19th at Memorial and a 15th in the US Open where he closed with an impressive 69.
That tied his best finish in a US Open so strengthens the idea that he's ready to show his top form again.
Choi won the title here in 2007 and, as a previous winner of the same event on Tour, is more than capable of winning this for a second time.
The 42-year-old says of Congressional: "You know, this course fits my game very well, because I hit a lot of high fades, high cut shots, which suits this course."
Even if others disagree, KJ clearly feels this course plays to his strengths and, as an eight-time Tour winner coming into form, the 40/1 looks very fair.
Rory Sabbatini is a player who likes to keep busy and his best form usually comes off a spell of sustained activity.
He's played six of the last eight weeks and some of the supposed time off was spent trying to qualify for the US Open.
The pretty continuous golf has helped Sabbatini bed in the swing changes that he's worked on with coach Rick Smith and the results are starting to come.
The South African said he first felt comfortable with the revamp at Hilton Head where he finished 17th and, after a dip, he really put it all together with a second place at Memorial.
He built on that with a closing 54 holes of 66-68-67 at the Travelers Championship last week so will be chomping at the bit to test himself again at Congressional.
It's a course where he's had some success before, finishing 30th in last year's US Open and also sixth on his only other appearance there in 2005.
Sabbatini was beaten into second at Memorial by Tiger's amazing chip-in so perhaps the feisty Springbok can get some revenge here.
The 36-year-old knows how to win - six wins is hugely impressive at this level - so take some 80/1.
As for the rest, Tiger himself is a past winner here and, whilst his game still looks fragile in majors, he seems to have found his comfort zone again back on the regular Tour.
He has an obvious chance but 11/2 is nothing special.
The bookies aren't giving anything away either on 14/1 Hunter Mahan and 16/1 Dustin Johnson while 22/1 Adam Scott still keeps throwing an iffy round in.
So, given that the course should play firm, I'll have a punt on Martin Laird at 66/1 as these are conditions he likes.
At his best, the Scotsman can mix it with the game's best and he already has a win at Bay Hill on his CV and second in the Players Championship at Sawgrass just four starts ago.
Missed cuts are Wentworth and Olympic Club shouldn't overly concern us and sandwiched inbetween was a top 25 at the St Jude where he was third on the All-Around stats (he'd topped this category at Sawgrass).
He can't bring any course form to the table but, then again, his previous Sawgrass form was MC-MC-69.
What can be added to the mix is his huge desire to make the European Ryder Cup team.
There's a lot of work to be done as he's only 23rd on the World Points List but it means he will be pushing hard and going for the win and the 66/1 could look a big price come Sunday evening.
