RECOMMENDED BETS
2pts e.w. Charley Hoffman at 50/1 (totesport, Betfred, Paddy Power 1/4 1,2,3,4,5).
1pt e.w. Jhonattan Vegas at 100/1 (General 1/4 1,2,3,4,5).
1pt e.w. Derek Lamely at 500/1 (Paddy Power 1/4 1,2,3,4,5).
1pt e.w. Jeff Maggert to be first round leader at 125/1 (totesport, Betfred, Ladbrokes 1/4 1,2,3,4,5).
The golf world was turned on its head in West Virginia last week when a pair of virtual unknowns fought out a play-off for the Greenbrier Classic after Tiger Woods and Phil Mickelson had missed the cut.
So will Steve Stricker turn it back round again by winning his fourth straight title at this week's John Deere Classic in Illinois?
Only the legendary - Young Tom Morris, Walter Hagen, Gene Sarazen and Tiger Woods - have ever won the same tournament on four consecutive occasions so history is very much against the man from Wisconsin.
The 7,257-yard TPC Deere Run (par 71) is obviously right up Stricker's street and the 15/2 is tempting.
But the luck required to win a tournament four times on the spin, the lack of a top five since his season-opening win in Hawaii and a slip to 72nd in the Strokes Gained - Putting stats (he was 2nd last year) is enough to put me off.
Instead top billing goes to Charley Hoffman and he's a confident pick at 50s.
Stricker's winning totals here for the last three years have been -22, -26 and -20 so this tournament is a real birdie-fest.
That plays right into Hoffman's hands as the straggly-haired American's two PGA Tour wins have been worth with -17 (Bob Hope in 2007) and -22 (Deutsche Bank in 2010).
Hoffman sits 33rd in Birdie Average this year and led the field with 24 when he posted a recent tied second in the Travelers Championship.
In all honesty, Hoffman should have won that tournament but blew a two-stroke lead over the final two holes.
However, writing players off as bottlers can prove a costly business and we saw evidence of that only last week when in-form Marcel Siem held his nerve to capture the prestigious French Open.
"Any time you put yourself in contention, you learn from that," said a philosophical Hoffman after his Travelers blowout and players love an early chance to right the wrong.
On a course where he's finished 7th and 15th on his last two visits (shooting three 65s in his last six rounds), this is an ideal stage for the 35-year-old Californian to do just that so get stuck in at 50/1.
Jhonattan Vegas is a player to note when birdies and eagles are flying even though his season-long stats in those departments this year aren't great.
Nevertheless, there are signs that he's back on the birdie trail, especially at the AT&T National where he posted a tournament joint-high 19.
All those circles on his card helped Vegas finish tied fourth and added to a surprise seventh he took in the Players Championship five starts earlier.
Although those two good recent results were produced with totals of -8 and -4 it's low-scoring events where Vegas feels most comfortable as shown by the -27 he shot to win last year's Bob Hope and the -17 he posted when fifth in the Justin Timberlake. Unsurprisingly his one Web.com Tour (formerly Nationwide) win in 2010 came with a winning total of -20.
Vegas' rather Jekyll and Hyde nature (he throws in plenty of missed cuts) was shown on his John Deere Classic debut last year.
After 36 holes he was in fourth place after an excellent second round 64 but over the weekend he carded a pair of 75s to fade away to 68th.
However, those first two rounds give us plenty of cause for hope and an added good memory for Vegas is the six straight birdies he shot in his opening 68.
The freely available 100/1 on the Venezuelan looks tasty.
I'm not sure I've ever tipped a 500/1 shot but with last week showing that anything is possible I'm going to roll the dice and put a few coppers on Derek Lamely.
The basic premise for a Lamely punt is that he's from Illinois and has excellent putting stats (7th in Strokes Gained - Putting in 2012 although that's taken from a small sample as he often misses the cut!).
You can add to that the fact that he's already a PGA Tour winner having landed the Puerto Rico Open with 19-under in 2010.
Two starts ago he shot three 68s and a 71 to finish tied 37th in the Travelers while two starts before he was 29th in the Byron Nelson so his form is much better than it was when he won in Puerto Rico.
He was coming back from a wrist injury when he missed the cut here last year so we can write that off and although this is a bit of a punt he shouldn't really be a 500/1 shot in this level of field.
Some bookies offer that same price about Sandy Lyle winning The Open at Lytham next month which is utterly ridiculous. Lamely doing well here is not.
As for the rest, Zach Johnson, Jonathan Byrd and Ryan Palmer all have obvious credentials but there's no value in their prices.
So, I'll close with a first round leader bet on Jeff Maggert at 125s.
The veteran opened with a 64 to sit second after day one at last week's Greenbrier whilst an opening 66 saw him top the St Jude leaderboard three starts before that. Back in April he was fourth after day one in Houston so Maggert has been coming out of the gates fast.
He opened with a 66 here last year and went on to finish third so he has good recent memories of TPC Deere Run and hopefully he can make another flying start.
