Sport : Horse Racing

STATISTICAL POWER

4th May 2012, 05:46pm

Power: Can win the season's first Classic

Power: Can win the season's first Classic

  • Winners have been priced between 1-2 and 33-1 with eight returned at 11-1 or shorter.

  • Two favourites have been successful with a further three finishing second.
  • Six winners were making their seasonal reappearance; the four exceptions had all won their prep races.
  • Eight of the last 10 winners had won their previous start, the two exceptions were placed in Group Two contests.
  • Winners had had between two and seven career starts.
  • Nine of the winners had won at Group Three level or above with the exception finishing third in a Group Two.
  • Four winners were unbeaten, none had been beaten more than twice.
  • All of the last 10 winners had raced over seven furlongs.
  • Four winners had won a Group One as a two-year-old.

    Summary

    Camelot has the statistics to overcome with none of the last 10 winners having raced exclusively over a mile, in fact, in the last 60 years only the brilliant Dancing Brave has won this Classic having done his racing solely over a mile.

    Factoring in the record of Montjeu's progeny over a mile raises further concerns with his three year olds operating at a strike rate of around 5% over the trip since 2005 compared to three times that over ten furlongs or more.

    The leading candidates are French Fifteen and Power with the latter preferred despite being beaten last time out in the Group One Dewhurst as his trainer has landed four of the last 10 renewals.

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