Sport : Horse Racing

A GREY DAY FOR STATS FANS

25th May 2012, 04:31pm

Grey Mirage: May be able to overcome a high draw

Grey Mirage: May be able to overcome a high draw

  • Winners have been rated between 79 and 104 with five between 90 and 95 and the last three 84-87.

  • Winners have carried between 7-12 and 9-7.
  • Winners have been drawn between 3 and 17 with six in single figure berths.
  • Winners have been priced between 5-4 and 15-2, with four winning favourites (one-joint) and a further four placed (one joint).
  • Winners had had between three and eight career starts with eight racing no more than five times.
  • Only one winner was scoring on their seasonal reappearance.
  • Eight winners finished in the first three on their preceding start, four were successful. The two exceptions ran in the Dewhurst Stakes and 2000 Guineas.
  • All of the winners had won over at least seven furlongs.
  • Nine of the winners had already raced in a handicap, none of them had finished out of the frame in handicap company.
  • Five winners had either won or been placed in a class 2 handicap or higher, the exceptions had yet to race at that level.

    Summary

    This race has seen a relatively wide range of weight and rating related performances in the past decade but there are plenty of strong statistics and none more so than the record of fancied runners in the race with not a single winner returning at a double figure SP which is fairly remarkable given the competitive nature of the race.

    Gabrial has proved popular in the ante-post markets but finished out of the frame on his seasonal reappearance in a handicap behind Chapter Seven thus failing to meet one of the key criteria.

    Tidentime, Trail Blaze, Frog Hollow, Archbishop and Grey Mirage all tick the majority of the key boxes and it makes sense to concentrate on those just in behind the morning line favourite in the market.

    There isn't a great deal to choose between them but, given that the last three winners have been rated in the 80s, the suggestion is Marco Botti's impressive Sandown winner although he does have to overcome a high draw and prove himself under quicker conditions.

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