|2.5pts New South Wales (+2) at 4/5 (Betfred).||Not much in first game. Home advantage huge.|
|1pt Todd Carney to score the first try at 25/1 (Blue Square & Stan James)||Key man for Blues and good support player.|
|2.5pts over 34.5 points at 9/10 (Bet365)||Likely to be more open than first game.|
Wednesday sees game two of the 2012 State Of Origin and the bookmakers are split.
Some give New South Wales a two-point start, some hand Queensland the same margin and others make it a scratch handicap.
It is that tight but I'm going with the Blues to level the series and win their home game. There'll be a sell-out 80,000 crowd in the Olympic Stadium roaring them on and there were enough positives in the opening defeat to suggest they'll be celebrating victory too.
New South Wales went close to winning that game and had they been a little smarter in possession they could have been looking to seal the series here.
In addition Queensland are without Sam Thaiday and he's a huge loss. His work-rate is phenomenal and he helps to lay the platform for their star names to play.
There won't be much in this but I think now is the time for Todd Carney to take centre-stage. He went okay in the first game but people expected more and I think he can emerge as the key man in Sydney.
He certainly makes plenty of appeal to score the first try at 25-1 as he is capable of making breaks and is a great support player.
I take a Carney-inspired home wide to win so they have to be the call receiving two points.
I also like the look of over 34.5 in the total points market. The second game tends to be more open than the first, one side has to press to try and level the series, the other knows they are within touching distance of winning it.
Both sides are packed with players capable of scoring points and with the shackles off, I expect this to be relatively high scoring.