2pts Queensland (-4) to beat NSW at evens (BetVictor).
3pts over 34.5 total points at 5/6 (Coral).
1pt Greg Inglis to be first tryscorer at 9/1 (Paddy Power).
1pt Johnathan Thurston to be Man of the Match at 5/1 (bet365).
Queensland can achieve a record seventh straight success in the State of Origin series against New South Wales. We tipped the Maroons at the start of the tournament to win 2-1, although NSW have definitely got within touching distance of overturning that supremacy.
Queensland, in recent years, have blown NSW apart in the first 20 minutes and this will be the test for the latter as they have clearly lacked confidence in the past.
Queensland are at home so it is a real big ask for NSW to stand up and be counted - but the hosts are without Billy Slater at full-back.
He is replaced by their centre Greg Inglis, who is in outstanding form and probably one of the leading players in the world.
He plays for his club at full-back so won't be out of his depth while the resturn of Sam Thaiday will also be a boost as he is a tremendous workhorse.
Ben Te'o plays his first State of Origin game too and he has been excellent for the Brisbane Broncos so it is very hard to go against Queensland.
I really think that this is the opportunity for NSW to pounce, especially with the retirement of Darren Lockyer, but with the local support and their loss in the last game, I think Queensland can win and cover the start - but only just.
There are traditionally points in this game with both teams going for it at a frantic speed so I will go for the overs in the total points market while I like Inglis for first tryscorer.
He will get a little more room at full-back and has really blossomed over the last 12 months - him crossing over first could set Queensland alight.
Finally, Johnathan Thurston gets the vote to be Man of the Match.
If the hosts are going to win he has to be the best player on the field and he can do that.
It gives him the chance to step up and replace the inspirational Lockyer - he is instrumental as he plays with so much energy.